The cost effective acquisitions the Armed Forces of the Philippines should prioritize post Covid-19

Covid-19 has hit the Philippine economy particularly hard with the Philippines now in a recession.  With the government in conservation mode due to the pandemic, it looks like big ticket items like the much-anticipated Multi-Role Fighter acquisition and Corvette purchase may be questioned by congress.  But given the escalation in tension in the West Philippine sea, the Philippine Armed Forces (AFP) can not afford to sit down and do nothing in the arms race.  

The AFP's main mission objectives are to be able to 1st detect threats that enter Philippine air space or seas, identify these trespassers, intercept the intruders and engage or neutralize should they pose a credible threat.  

With the lack of assets for both the PN and the PAF, cost effective solutions should focus on improving our ability to detect and identify, with less emphasis on full scale combat but retaining some capability to deal deadly force when needed.  For full scale encounters, we can always call on the mutual defense treaty with the US.   

The AFP is currently pursuing two hallmark (and expensive) projects, one for the Airforce and one for the Navy. 

These two projects are the 1) Corvette acquisition project of the Navy and the 2) Multi Role fighter (MRF) acquisition of the Airforce.  Despite the Covid-19 pandemic, it looks as if AFP is still hell-bent on securing a lone squadron of MRF and a pair of Corvettes shortly after the end of Duterte's term.  

Now that we're faced with budget cuts, perhaps it would be better for the AFP to pursue less expensive yet still effective solutions to their needs.  Here are some examples as to how the AFP can do this with their existing projected funding for the Corvette acquisition and MRF programs.  Proposed acquisitions would put a priority on detection and identification with less emphasis on neutralization.  

1) Divert the Php28 bn for 2 Corvettes to 5 upgraded OPVs

The Navy dreams of having 2 brand new corvettes, armed to the teeth, after securing relatively under-gunned frigates with a pair of Jose Rizal class ships (pictured left) based on the HDF2600 design from Korea's HHI.  The budget for the two Corvettes was set at Php28 bn or Php14 bn per ship.  The Corvettes are projected to be even more heavily armed than the existing Rizals (which incidentally cost Php9bn per), likely having more anti-ship missiles, a working 8-cell Vertical Launch System (VLS) and its very own Close In Weapon System (CIWS).  

As fitted, the planned Corvettes would pack quite a punch and likely keep on them on par with corvettes of rival navies.  However, given the amount of ground (or sea) that the Navy needs to cover, wouldn't funds be better spent on increasing the number of hulls at the Navy's disposal while still ensuring that these new assets are able to effective detect, identify and then engage with decent deadly force if need be? Enter the Offshore Patrol Vessel project.

The PN has a separate project to acquire 6 brand new Offshore Patrol Vessels (OPVs) with the contract likely to be awarded to Austal from Australia.  The OPV is an 83 meter vessel designed to show flag and to a lesser extent engage in a full blown skirmish with an intruding vessel.  As designed, the future OPV will carry a 76 mm naval gun and two remote control weapons stations (RCWS) as armament.  This may appear pretty meager but given its primary role as patrol vessel, it does appear to be comparable to other OPVs lets says of the British Royal Navy.  

At roughly Php5 bn a pop, an OPV (pictured right) is a cheap and efficient route for the PN to quickly increase the number of hulls at disposal and improve the ability of PN to patrol our waters.  The planned Php28 bn allocated for two corvettes can be channeled to 5 additional OPVs with change of about Php3 bn.      

Up-arming the OPVs from Php3bn savings

The Php3 bn difference can revert back to the BTr as savings or can hopefully be used to upgrade the planned OPVs current configuration of armament.  Should this be an option, the PN can use the savings towards up-arming the OPVs by ensuring that all ships of its class are outfitted with some form of air defense with surface-to-air weapons.  As designed, the OPVs will not have dedicated air defense capabilities outside its complement of 2 RCWS (likely 25 mm cannons) and its 76 mm naval gun.  

An affordable solution to this issue would be to outfit the OPVs with a pair of twin SIMBAD RC Mistral launchers (shown  right) for short-range air defense (SHORAD) of the OPVs.  These are currently being used on the Jose Rizal class frigates as their band-aid air defense solution.  The SIMBAD launcher is relatively affordable, at $1.5 mn (Php75 mn) and they can consider equipping the entire fleet of 11 OPVs with 2 each of these missile launchers.  That leaves the PN with roughly Php1.35 bn ($27mn) left for other upgrades.

Meanwhile, the PN can also opt to configure a number of its OPVs as "Flight 2 ships", with upgraded armament by up-gunning its existing weapons to have them pack a little more punch.  The OPV platform can be used to have a Flight-1 patrol ship and a Flight-2 assault ship, a more heavily armed OPV to call in should they need ASW or more fire power.   

There are several options for doing this, one of which is maximizing the RCWS by slapping on a couple of short-range Martlet missiles to the autocannon, like the MSI defense SIGMA (shown left) which retails at roughly $5.2 million . 

Similarly, PN could configuring a Rafael Typhoon weapons station  with both a 25 mm cannon and a pair of SPIKE NLOS missiles (shown right) to feature both an autocannon and missile armament.  SPIKE NLOS missiles are Rafael's medium range missiles with a range of 25 km.

Modest upgrades such as these would push out the OPVs strike range to up to 25km and help them wield a little more venom if push does come to shove.  Lastly, the PN can also opt to outfit the flight 2 OPV with SEA J+S twin torpedo launchers to make them ASW ready (shown below), in place of the planned smaller RHIB and crane midship.  

Instead of burning Php28 bn on two corvettes, the PN can possibly have up to 11 OPVs with upgraded weapons to increase its ability to cover more area in the West Philippine Sea. Sure we give up punching power with the smaller, less heavily armed OPVs but the additional hulls should be enough reason to prioritize more OPVs over the corvettes, for now.  

The introduction of the Flight-2 sub class of OPV could also prove to be a cost-effective way to increase the number of hulls at the PN's disposal, thereby improving their ability to detect and identify threats while still carrying a decent amount of firepower to wield in case of conflict. 

---The "Flight 2" OPV ---

The upgraded OPVS could look like this, making it sort of a light corvette.

a) 76 mm STRALES naval gun x 1

b)  Rafael Typhoon weapons station with 25 mm canon and 2 SPIKE NLOS missiles x 2

c) Twin SIMBAD MISTRAL RC launchers x 2

d) Sea J+S twin torpedo tubes x 2 

 2) Use the $1.2 bn allocated for MRFs towards LRPAs and additional FA50s

Long range patrol aircraft for the PAF

I understand the hype and allure of securing a squadron of F-16 Vipers or similarly 12 spanking brand new JAS Gripens as the PAF has for years been bereft of true blue multi role fighters.  However, for the $1.2 bn price tag, burning all that cheddar for 12 fighter jets may not be the best and most cost effective bet.  For one, having a lone squadron of 4.5 or 5th generation fighters was never going to automatically pole vault the PAF back into the regional arms race or let alone get China to piss its pants.  

Secondly, the PAF still lacks an adequate number of aircraft while also lacking in capability to carry out specific missions.  For example, currently PAF does not have a single long range patrol plane (LRPA).  PAF has rekindled its drive to acquire at least one of these planes recently but in order to improve our ability to detect potential intruders, we will likely need many more of these aircraft.  

The PAF has roughly Php5.9 bn earmarked for two LRPA or a budget of $60 mn for each plane with Airbus' C295 (pictured right) and Leonardo's P-72A as front runners.  Allocating some money away from the $1.2 bn for MRFs to secure even more of these LRPAs will greatly enhance the PAFs ability to patrol and detect intruders.  Multi-role fighters would be nice to have but do nothing in terms of improving the PAFs coverage and patrol capabilities unless you would suggest flying out these expensive jets to do daily patrols of the West Philippine Sea.  Perhaps it would be more sensible for PAF to prioritize this project before locking in the lion's share of the budget on a limited set of high flying but pricey fighters.

Secure an AWACS plane

The Philippines has moved to secure additional radar assets and even invested in a ground based air defense system to beef up its ability to detect identify and even neutralize threats.  What the PAF can also hope to acquire is an Airborne Warning and Control System plane or AWACS to extend its detection capability to effectively maximize the capability of its existing FA50 fleet.  These "flying radars" will help detect and more importantly identify potential intruders and will also extend the radar range of the current light fighters of the PAF. 

Relatively inexpensive options for this would be the C295 version (pictured above to the left) or something similar to what the Royal Thai air force purchased.  The PAF recently purchased a small G280 gulf stream business jet (shown right), supposedly to be a command and control aircraft but analysts suspect it to lack the equipment to be anything more than a VVIP transport.       

Settle for additional FA50 light fighters..for now

With a portion of the MRF budget diverted to the purchase of several LRPAs, the PAF may opt to double down on the current PAF fighter: the FA50 Golden Eagle to shore up its fleet of interceptors.  

Although smaller in stature and understandably not as capable compared to its bigger brother like the F-16 Viper or other MRFs, the FA50 remains a cost effective solution to the PAFs problem of lack of air assets and the need for (interim) stand-in fighter jets.  

The knock against the FA50s (shown right) continues to be its lack of AESA radar, BVR missile capability and relatively limited range (1,8000 kilometers).  All of these delinquencies however are currently being addressed by upgrades from KAI on its block-20 design. Upgrades that will be on the block-20 FA50 include the ability to carry both Derby and Python BVR missiles on top of plans for aerial refueling kits and or conformal tanks to extend the FA50's range.  The best thing about the FA50 is that they cost 1/3 of an F-16 Viper while offering supersonic speed, 7 weapons hardpoints and a radar that will eventually be up to EASA standard: a decent choice for PAFs stand-in interceptor.  

Settling for 2 additional squadrons of the FA50 block-20 light fighters helps address the PAFs ability to neutralize potential threats after detection and identification by the PAFs projected fleet of LRPAs and AWACs plane.  Working in tandem with the LRPAs and the AWACS plane, the FA50 can prove to be a cost-effective solution to the PAFs needs given a meager budget, especially once the block-20 FA50s are available.     

With the $1.2 bn earmarked for the expensive MRF program, the PAF can opt to secure up to 2 additional squadrons of FA50s, an AWACS plane and 3 LRPAs.  That's 28 aircraft for the price of 12 MRFs!  And although 12 brand new MRFs would be nice to have, leapfrogging the glaring deficiency in PAF's detection and identification to focus solely on neutralization would put the PAF at a disadvantage.  If we can't detect or identify the threats, those MRFs still won't be able to neutralize them.   

Deploying a mix of light fighters, long range patrol aircraft and even an AWACS would be a more effective strategy for improving our ability to detect, identify and then neutralize threats.  The LRPAs alongside the AWACS are better suited to patrol our skies while two additional squadrons of FA50 block 20 light fighters can act as a decent stand-in interceptor force with its planned upgrades for AESA radar and BVR missiles.  Despite the MRFs increased payload, range and firepower it'll be difficult (and expensive!) to patrol the vast skies with just those 12 fighter jets.  

More is better and the focus on detection over neutralization

Given the tight budget afforded to the AFP, the PHL should focus on increasing our capability to detect and identify with less emphasis on neutralization.  Currently, there seems to be too much emphasis on neutralization with the PAF pushing for assets that wield a considerable amount of firepower from the get go but this begs the question: how can we hit em if we don't know they're (the intruders) there?  Why should we strike if we can't effectively identify them?

For the money the PAF set aside for 12 MRFs, the PAF can have a complement of LRPAs, an AWACS aircraft and 24 brand new upgraded light fighters (28 aircraft in total).  

Meanwhile, for the same money allocated for 2 expensive corvettes, the PN can upgrade all of its planned fleet of OPVs (6 pending) with SHORAD, procure 5 additional ships and perhaps build an OPV Flight-2 (light corvette) with upgraded armaments.   

The AFP should steer its modest budget to getting more units out there even at the expense of some fire power.  Beefing up the PAF and the PN with modern equipment that aids in detection and identification should be the key while still ensuring that our units retain a decent amount of firepower to strike back and inflict damage if necessary.