The Philippine MRF program and why PAF should just buy more FA50s

Multi role fighter program on hold?

The Philippine Air Force (PAF) was at the last 100 yards before the finish line to secure 12 F-16 Vipers under their Multi Role Fighter (MRF) program.  The MRFs were targeted to help expand the PAF’s capabilities amidst the growing threat of China given the lack of aerial assets with the Philippines having only 12 FA50s to show for.  Lacking an honest to goodness multi role fighter, the Philippine Air Force  pushed the MRF program hard. A cool $1.2 billion was earmarked for the project bringing the cost per plane to $100 million. Then Covid happened.

The very capable FA50 Golden Eagle

Currently the PAF only has a lone squadron of the FA50s in terms of fast jet air assets, which was the prized catch of the recent modernization Horizon 1 program.  FA50s are classified as a supersonic Lead In Fighter Trainers (LIFT), based on the platform of the T50 made by South Korea.  On top of being a trainer, the FA50 can double up as a light combat aircraft (LCA), carrying out forward air control, close air support and light attack (and air defense) missions.  

Although not at all to be mistaken for a MRF replacement, the FA50s are capable in their own right with top speeds of Mach 1.5 and the ability to carry a wide array of weapons like short range air-to-air missiles with 7 hard points. The FA50 is also attractive in terms of price, with each plane costing roughly $33 million, a fraction of the cost for full fledged multi role fighter jets.  However, despite all its merits, the FA50 still has its limitations, lacking beyond visual radar capability, relatively short range and lacking an AESA radar, but apparently these deficiencies are currently being addressed with upgrades for the Block 20 version with software upgrades designed max out the existing radar as well as possibly tacking on conformal fuel tanks.

MRF likely Covidified
The Covid-19 pandemic has forced the once promising economic outlook into a gloomy one with the Philippines now in recession. The Department of Finance is cash strapped as of the moment as revenue streams dry up with budget cuts likely on the way. One likely casualty will be defense spending with money channeled to healthcare and social services with millions facing unemployment. The $1.2 allocated for the MRF will likely be on hold for the time being however the need to rearm and improve our Air Force remains.  Top generals will have a tough time justifying spending that type of money at a time of crisis but perhaps a compromise can be struck.

Doubling down on the FA50
Instead of pushing the MRF acquisition now, perhaps the PAF can pivot and opt for additional units of its current lead-in fighter trainer, the Golden Eagle. The PAF had earmarked at least one more additional squadron under the 2028 Flight Plan anyways so this would simply push the order ahead (and maybe even upsize it given cost effectiveness).

At $33 million per plane, two brand new squadrons of the FA50 will total $790 million, a little over  half of the money earmarked for the advanced fighters.  Add to that, the FA50s will eventually be upgraded to have BVR capability with AESA radar (FA50 block 20) with adjustments to software, which I believe is the main knock against the light attack fighter.  Familiarity with the plane and commonality in munitions and spare parts will also come in handy in the long run. 

Furthermore, purchasing 24 additional units of the FA50 may earn the Philippines enough brownie points with the Koreans to land the Philippine Navy another Pohang corvette in the near term now that the PN's corvette project is on ice.  That could mean a big win for the Philippine Navy as it currently lacks enough capable hulls to patrol the West Philippine sea.

Land Cruiser vs the Fortuners
Additional squadrons of the Golden Eagle will definitely help in shoring up our capability to defend our skies.  For all the deficiencies of the FA50, we have to recognize that for the price tag, it provides the PAF a decent stand-in fighter that will be more than capable in defending Philippine air space, if push comes to shove.  Deficiencies of the FA50 may perhaps be augmented by ground based radar and an AWACS plane while the planned Block 20 FA50s upgrades the existing radar to AESA standard with BVR capability.

Having additional squadrons of this 4th generation trainer jet will bring the PAF closer to the goal of a respectable fighting force and let's admit it, having a single squadron of F-16 Vipers was never going to get China to piss its pants anyways.  I've used the analogy of the Land Cruiser vs the Fortuner in the past and I still believe it applies to this scenario.

Given a lump sum of Php5.5 million to build up a fleet of cars, would you rather go all-in and blow your budget on a single full sized SUV or would it be more practical to purchase up to 3 Fortuners to have more units available for deployment?  The Fortuner offers buyers a cost effective medium sized SUV with decent engine power, modest off-road capability, decent safety features and a passable faux-leather cabin.  All that rolled into a tight package with an affordable price tag to boot.  And true, the Fortuner may never reach certain places that the V-8 all-wheel drive Land Cruiser can get to, but then again, how often do you need a Land Cruiser to ford a river stream?  Likely never.  More often than not, these beasts will be loosed in the concrete jungle of Manila with possibly only a tour of duty or two in some "off road locations" during a trip up to La Union or down to Punta Fuego.  

The same can be said for the needs of the PAF.  Will the PAF really conduct deep air strikes or suppression of air defense missions?  Likely not.  More often than not, PAF's requirements will center on forward air control while also needing a stand-in interceptor to safeguard Philippine air space.  Given the defensive nature of our armed forces, a light fighter (i.e. the FA50), may be decent stand-in for a full-fledged multi-role fighter for the mean time. 

The Geagle, more than a band-aid solution
Sure the FA 50 isn't perfect but given the budget constraints and the need to get hold of as many capable air assets at the soonest, the Golden Eagle is more than a band aid solution to the problem.  Not at all to be considered an air superiority fighter, the FA50 may still likely hold its own over Philippine skies, all the more once the Block 20 FA50s become available.  The FA50 will carry out close air support and forward air control all the while taking on the role primary air defense interceptor for the time being.

Other regional air forces are employing the strategy of having a core fleet of LCA to complement a smaller contingent of the more expensive MRFs.  Malaysia is looking to replace the venerable Hawk208 with up to 3 squadrons of LCAs with the FA50 one of the primary contenders for the contract.  The planned LCAs will augment the "heavy" fighter fleet Malaysia's air force of F-18s and Su-30's.    

For the PAF additional units of FA50s should augment air defense should suffice for the time being, at a fraction of the cost and with some positive externalities to boot (potential Pohang donation). The money saved from the MRF program can also be redirected to other important needs of the Philippine Air Force such as the lack of maritime patrol aircraft, additional heavy and medium transport planes, an AEW&C plane, aerial tankers and dedicated ECM aircraft.

Eventually when budget constraints clear up, we can restart plans on acquiring the advanced fighters like the F-16 Viper, the Saab Gripen or if the budget setback lasts another 5 years, perhaps Korea’s Boramae Hawk MRF can be considered, with the tag price on these birds reported to be as low as $50-60 million a pop.  Once the big boys arrive, the FA50s can slide back into their more comfortable LIFT role, doing double duty as secondary fighter behind the new MRFs. 

Philippine Navy's modernization plan hits a snag, time to upgrade the Del Pilar OPVs?

Covid-19 knocks out PN modernization plan
The pandemic has hit our economy hard with scores unemployed and businesses reeling.  Government is scrapping for cash given falling revenues while slashing spending and the natural casualty of the cuts would be spending on defense.  Although still essential and all the more relevant given our current situation in the West Philippine Sea, I see why government should prioritize spending on social services over new military hardware.  The planned corvette acquisition is one project that will likely be delayed as funds are diverted away from defense, shutting the door on hopefuls for a more powerful surface combatant in the near term.  What complicates matters is that the probable transfer of South Korean hardware is also on hold as the proposed "donation" of more Pohang class corvettes was supposedly contingent on the purchase of more ships from Korea's HHI..

What now?
With the Corvette acquisition delayed to Horizon 3 and the donation of additional SK Navy Pohang corvettes also on ice, perhaps the Navy can still request for a short term band aid fix to the solution to not break the bank in terms of spending but at the same time upgrade its capabilities in the West Philippine Sea.  Up-gunning the existing fleet and decking out the newly-acquired Rizal class light frigates would be a good place to start.

Fully arm the Rizal class frigates 
The newly-minted Rizal class frigates give the PN a breath of fresh air, bringing modern weaponry and the first purpose built ships to the Philippines in a long time. Despite all the fanfare of the Rizals being missile guided frigates, they may be considered light weights in terms of punching power.  Sure they cover the bases in terms of armament: carrying anti-ship, anti-sub, anti-air weapons, the Rizals however won't do much damage in any of these categories as currently fitted.  One cost effective project would be to fully deck out the Rizals with the planned 8-cell vertical launching system (VLS) and installing the close in weapon system.

The VLS will upgrade the light frigates to maximum capability and increase versatility given that the VLS can carry most missiles and even torpedoes like the South Korean red shark. The PN can also install the planned close in weapons systems (CIWS) to ensure that the two prized (light) Rizal frigates can survive a firefight. Korea is designing a new CIWS or perhaps PN can consider the Aselsan CIWS and this could be an option going forward.  Lastly, the PN can consider having its Thales Towed Array Sonar installed on BRP Antonio Luna from the get go when shes delivered in 1q 2021 with the BRP Rizal getting its TASS soon after.

Upgrading the Del Pilar OPVs
The Del Pilars are currently lined up for some upgrades to its sensors and equipment as a consolation prize when the PN opted to downgrade the previously classified frigates to patrol vessels given their lack of modern armament.  With the pandemic scuttling the dream corvette acquisition for the time being, perhaps the PN should rethink this strategy.  

Upgrading the Del Pilar OPVs to fighting form may be a cost effective way to increase the Navy's presence in the region as the economy recovers from the pandemic.

Maxdefense laid out a template for the upgrade to prevent the Del Pilar downgrade and we could perhaps chose to fill out this template now that the corvette purchase has been pushed back by at least 3-5 years.

Here are some armaments that PN can possibly equip our Del Pilar OPVs with, in order of priority:

a) 2 twin SIMBAD-RC Mistral missile launchers for short range air defense ($1.5 million each)
b) 2 RCWS like MK 38 Mod 3 or Aselsan Stop Midships on BRP Andres Bonifacio ($1 mn each)
c) 1 RCWS MSI Sigma or MK Mod 3 with Spike NLOS Aft ($5.2 million) 

additionally the PN can also consider

d) 2 SEA J+S triple torpedo launchers (??)

e) 2 twin C-star missile launchers (??)

The RCWS are relatively inexpensive and should easily be thrown in the mix, hopefully with BRP Alcaraz and BRP Bonifacio getting an Aselsan Smash or the MSI Sigma positioned aft to act as a secondary gun. The MSI Sigma (pictured below) is a 30mm canon paired with a couple of Martlet missiles to pack a little more punch and should be considered even to replace the MK Mod 0 aft on the BRP Del Pilar. 

Alternatively, Israel's Rafael can offer an upgrade to the MK 3 Mod2/3 weapons platform, slapping on a pair of Spike missiles to the weapons mount alongside a 25mm canon, a cheap way to double up the Del Pilar’s anti ship capability real quick.  The Spike NLOS would be a better option given the extended range of these missiles (25 km vs 8 km for the Martlet).

These improvements and upgrades may not be enough to garner the Del Pilars status as frigates officially but installing the Mistral launchers and tacking on the torpedo tubes would expand its capabilities on the cheap.

The Simbad-RC Mistral launchers "shore up" the ship’s SHORAD while having torpedoes on board fully utilizes the planned on-hull sonar.  Additional remote control weapon systems mounted midships will beef up surface and air defense at a modest price tag while an additional MSI Sigma or MK 38 Mod 3 with the Spike NLOS launchers located aft would help the Del Pilars deliver a little more venom. 

Max defense had suggested up-gunning the Oto Melara main cannon to the newer Super Rapid with STRALES system but perhaps that's something they can skip to save on costs.  

PN could also consider installing a CIWS to also increase the Del Pilars' ability to survive a firefight but give the price tag ($11-16 million) that too may be out of the picture.  Having 3 RCWS on board can masquerade as a form of missile defense while the Simbad-RC Mistral launchers should help in this department as well.  

Meanwhile, twin C-star anti-ship launchers would be ideal to push out the Del Pilar’s strike range to 150 kilometers but I’m not optimistic this will be approved so the Spike NLOS  with a range of 25 km paired with a 30 mm canon may have to suffice as the Del Pilars' missile armament.

In any case, if the PN does spend on these upgrades, the new armaments can be transferred to future PN ships (maybe even the future corvettes) when budgetary constraints ease up or when the Del Pilars finally retire.

Push for a 4th Hamilton Cutter
With tensions flaring up between the US and China again, perhaps we can lobby for a 4th Hamilton cutter to help augment our fleet in the near term.  Currently there’s only 1 Hamilton cutters left in active service, the USCGC Douglas Munro (not to be confused with the Legend class USCGC Munro), scheduled for decommissioning in the near term as the US Coast guard builds the new Heritage offshore patrol cutters.

Perhaps Mike Pompeo can be convinced to send over the USCGC Munro to help arm a still semi-friendly ally in the Philippines against the clear and present China threat.  

If we do get a 4th Hamilton, transition would be almost seamless given that we have several officers and crew already familiar with ships in its class.  The US will likely strip her of most of the weapons, with the Phalanx CIWS likely a goner but at least this would leave the PN with one more ship that could take a relatively short time to recondition and prepare for patrols.  

The BRP Ramon Alcaraz was decommissioned from US service on 30 March 2012 and entered Philippine service by November 2013 so if we do get hold of the retired USCGC Munro, we could have her ready to sail as early as 1Q 2022.  An additional hull via the USCGC Hamilton route would be a cost effective stop gap measure until we can finally get hold of the planned HHI corvettes and the targeted new OPVs which were expected to be awarded to Austal.

The 4th (AL-EX-AN-D! ER we are meant to be!) Hamilton cutter can also be outfitted with new armaments during its rehabilitation and reconditioning to get it ready to patrol the West Philippine sea. Given that a 4th Hamilton cutter will not be included in the ongoing equipment upgrade (no sonar or CMS) of her 3 sister ships, upgrades to the armament may center on the following:

a) 2 twin SPIMM or SIMBAD-RC anti-air missile launchers for SHORAD ($1.5 million each)
b) 2 RCWS like MK38 Mod 3 25 mm guns or similar, midships ($1 million each)

c) 1 RCWS like MK38 Mod 3 30mm canon with Spike NLOS (shown below) or MSI Sigma positioned aft where the Phalanx was originally mounted ($5.2 million). 

A cheaper alternative for a secondary gun would be the Aselsan Smash, which is fitted on the Rizal class frigates at a friendlier price tag of $4.5 million sans the missile launchers, though. 

Total cost of $10-11 million to upgrade the potential fourth Hamilton cutter. 

If the 4th Del Pilar can’t mount the Simbad-RC launchers due to lack of a proper combat management system, the PN can install the SPIMM Mistral module (pictured below) a stand alone system that incorporates the Simbad-RC twin launchers with a small command center attached to the launchers.

Short term rearming
Given the budget constraints amidst the need to shore up capability, upgrading the Del Pilar OPVs, fully outfitting the 2 Rizals and getting our hands on an additional Hamilton cutter will help the PN assemble a decent Philippine flotilla in as short as 2 years time.

The PN could have 2 fully decked out light Rizal frigates, 4 up-gunned Del Pilar patrol vessels, an ex-Pohang class corvette and 3 Jacinto class OPVs.  The cost to upgrade armaments on the Del Pilars, purchase a hand-me-down Hamilton and fully deck out the Rizals will likely be much less than the Php28 bn allocated for the corvettes while the new weapons can always be transferred to the planned corvettes when we do get the funds to buy them, eventually. The short term rearming strategy will help the PN skirt the budget constraints, improve capability immediately while also safeguarding the long term goals of full modernization with all the new armaments transferable to future naval assets.

Five years time with no upgrades to our fleet will put us at a severe disadvantage given the increased intrusion in the West Philippine sea and the modest cost to rearm the fleet and pickup an additional hull will be money well spent to beef up on existing assets until the planned HHI corvettes and Austal OPVs come sailing in hopefully in 2025.

Unsolicited game plan for the Philippine Navy

I’m no military expert. Just some ramblings on my fascination with military equipment and what I hope will happen for my country’s armed forces in such challenging times.

First up, my unsolicited game plan for the Philippine Navy!

1) The "corvette deal" and downgrading the Rizal frigates
The Philippines recently took delivery of its first Rizal class missile frigate a smaller version of the Korean Incheon class frigate. Cost for one of these ships was PHP8 bn and these ships supposedly carry guided missiles, torpedoes and is fitted for further upgrades for a vertical launch system (VLS) and a close in weapon system (CIWS).  On top of acquiring the new Rizal class frigates, the PN supposedly inked a deal for 2 additional corvettes worth Php15 billion per ship. Given that the Rizals retailed at Php8 billion, we can expect the new corvettes to be more capable in terms of sensors and armament.  

Max Defense actually thinks that the future corvettes will be larger and heavier than the Rizal class frigates which brings me to my suggestion: 

With the P15 billion budget per ship, perhaps the Philippine Navy (PN) should procure a full fledged frigate based on Korea's Daegu frigate while re-purposing the Rizal class frigates as corvettes.

The newer frigates can be closer to the Korean Daegu frigates in size and displacement (2,800 tones at 122 m) hopefully with better rated engines to power this new class of ships faster then the 25 knot maximum speed of the Rizals. Armament should include:

Armament for the PN's new “corvette”/frigate

a) Leonardo SR 76 mm main gun
b) MSI Sigma, Rafael Typhoon station with SPIKE missiles weapon system
c) 4 small caliber machine guns
d) a Close in Weapons System 
e) an 8-cell VLS
f) at least 4 twin surface-to-air Mistral rocket launchers or 2 quad SHORAD Tetral launchers
g) at least 2 quad C-star anti-ship missile launchers 
h) 2 SEA triple torpedo tubes with Blue shark torpedoes

i) 2 Mk Mod3 with 25mm gun & Spike NLOS missiles 

This positions the new frigates as having improved anti-air capabilities on top of anti-submarine capability. Basically the armament on the new frigates are very similar to the Rizal class frigates, with an additional pair of twin SIMBAD Mistral launchers, 2 quad C-star launchers (vs 2 twin on the Rizals).  

The frigates should also feature an upgraded secondary 30mm gun with missile capability (Aselsan Smash 30mm gun with quad LMM missiles shown below) and fully fitted with the CIWS and the VLS.

Downgrading the Rizals

Meanwhile, the Rizal class frigates may be reclassified as corvettes by simply retaining the current configuration (foregoing the CIWS and VLS) and finally purchasing the towed array sonar to improve its sonar capability. As currently outfitted, the Rizal class ships tick all the boxes in terms of armament, with anti-ship, surface to air and anti submarine weaponry however they don’t pack a lot of punch for any of these categories. The TASS will at least bolster its ability to detect submarine activity justifying its reclassification as corvettes.  

In the future the Navy can also consider installing the planned for 8-cell VLS and CIWS to bring the Rizal corvettes to full capability when budgetary constraints ease. Alternatively, the Rizals can simply tack on an additional pair of RC Simbad Mistral launchers and maybe a pair of weapons stations with missile complement such as the MSI Sigma or Rafael’s Typhoon station with 25mm guns paired with Spike NLOS missiles.

Should the Philippine Navy opt to do this, they will have a new corvette class (the re positioned 2,500 ton Rizals) for anti submarine warfare while procuring 2 new true blue frigates with both anti-submarine with improved air defense capabilities.

2) load up on OPVs- the Philippine Navy is set to purchase up to six offshore patrol vessels from Australia with Austal designing an 80 meter vessel with capacity for a helicopter. PHP30 billion has been set aside for this acquisition with each Offshore Patrol Vessel costing roughly PHP5 billion.

Although relatively lightly armed, it’s role in the navy will likely be limited to patrolling Philippine waters while calling in the bigger and more capable surface combatants should they run into trouble. With tensions flaring up in the west Philippine sea, it would be best to deploy as many of these fast and capable OPVs to secure our waters. Austal gave the OPV's the monicker, the "Pride of the Fleet" and we would agree, this ship class should be the focal point of the fleet as we need as many of these modern, decently equipped ships to safeguard our vast waters.  

Armament should approximate those fitted on the Del Pilar OPV as stated by Max Defense.

1) a 76 mm naval gun

2) 2 RCWS (ASELSAN Stop or Rafael Mk Mod3)

The PN also would want the following FFBNW:

3) 2 twin Simbad-RC Mistral launchers for SHORAD

4) 2 SEA triple torpedo launchers

The PN can also consider up gunning the planned RCWS with medium range missiles such as Spike NLOS missiles (pictured below).  Alternatively, RCWS can be equipped with shorter ranger Martlet missiles but the concept is the same.  

The planned OPV will be able to carry the new anti submarine Wildcat helicopters, which are assigned to the new Rizal class frigates. Carrying the Wildcat would improve the use and capabilities of the OPV despite not being equipped with a TASS although the OPV may likely be equipped with a hull mounted sonar.  

The OPV option looks like a cost effective route to improve Philippine presence in our own waters. The newer ships will look to complement and eventually replace the current batch of OPVs of Jacinto class corvettes and ex-Hamilton class cutters. Hopefully we can have at least 12 in the near term, and 18 eventually when the Del Pilar ships are retired.

3) Haggle for a 4th Hamilton cutter
An additional Hamilton-class cutter from the US could help augment the current patrol capability of the PN, increasing the number of hulls available while also taking on a ship that many a crew are now familiar with. The US will likely strip the ship down to bare bones, leaving basic navigation and sensors while also removing the Phalanx CIWS. So we should basically getting another BRP Bonifacio. 

One cutter remains in US service: the USCGC Munro. This acquisition should tide the navy over until the OPV fleet arrives and at least would allow some of its older siblings (Del Pilar and Alcaraz) some down time.

4) Pressure Korea for additional Pohang corvettes
Procuring an additional 2 frigates from HHI and perhaps another squadron of FA50s may just earn the Philippines enough brownie points to lobby for a pohang corvette or two from Korea. Getting our hands on additional hulls of not so dated but very capable hardware will bolster the fleet at a modest price tag.

The Philippine Navy fleet mix 
A) Frigates based on HDF3000 (up to 3)
B) Rizal class heavy Corvettes (repurposed Rizal class frigates) HDF2600 (up to 6)
C) Pohang class Corvettes 
D) Del Pilar class OPVs
E) New Austal designed OPVs (up to 12)
F) Jacinto class OPVs

The fleet should be laden with more patrol vessels given the need to cover much ground in the West Philippine Sea.  The Austal OPV design is perfect for this role as the 85m ships will be decently armed but hopefully outfitted with a wide array of sensors and sonar to help detect foreign intrusion into our waters.  Eventually, the venerable Hamilton cutters will eventually need to be retired with more Austal OPVs taking their place perhaps before 2025 as the Del Pilars mileage nears 60 years in total active service.  The target should be to have 18 OPVs operating at any given time with these relatively modestly sized ships patrolling our sovereign waters, constituting the Offshore patrol fleet.   

The PN should also have capable surface combatants, spearheaded by the new Frigate class based on the HDF 3000 of HHI (see above) which should hold its own against even the heavier ships on neighboring navies.  The second class of surface combatants will be the Rizal "heavy" corvettes, reclassified from the previous designation as frigates.  Relatively lightly armed for a frigate and noticeably heavier than most corvettes, the Rizals will fill in nicely as a "tweener" ship, the PN's version of a stretch forward with anti-air, anti-submarine and anti-ship capability.  Think Antawn Jamison, could do it all, but nothing particularly well.  The PN should have up to 6 of these corvettes.    Lastly, the third class of surface combatants may be the ex-South Korean Navy Pohang class corvette which are loaded with weaponry, but lack missile armament.  This fleet should constitute the Philippine main surface combatant naval fleet.